📊 Macro Decision Card | April 15, 2026

🔴 Risk-Off — Neutral Liquidity · Credit Tightening · Rising Volatility

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VIX        18.4   ↓ -4.0%

US 10Y     4.30%  ↓ -0.2%

HY Spread  295bps ↑ +1

BTC        $74,030 ↓ -0.8%

QQQ        $628.6 ↑ +1.8%

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🧠 Core View

• Geopolitical tensions (Iran) combined with energy shocks are increasing stagflation pressure, raising the risk of a more hawkish central bank stance

• Tariff expectations (Trump) alongside tightening credit conditions are weighing on the growth outlook

• Liquidity is improving, but risk appetite is fading — leading to a more fragmented market environment

🌍 Key Events

🌍 IMF warns that a prolonged Iran conflict could trigger a global recession

🛢 Argentina inflation came in above expectations; BOJ is considering raising its inflation outlook due to higher oil prices

📦 Bessent signals that Trump-era tariffs could return as early as July

⚡ Carney suspends fuel taxes to offset rising energy costs

🏦 Czech Prime Minister criticizes high interest rates for restricting lending

📉 Asset Signals

• QQQ — Trend improving, but weak breadth and lack of rotation suggest the rebound is fragile

• BTC — Bearish trend despite $572M in weekly ETF inflows, indicating divergence between flows and price

• Rates (10Y at 4.3%) — Yield curve steepening continues, signaling persistent rate pressure

📡 What to Watch

🚨 Escalation in geopolitical tensions

🚨 Breakout in oil prices

💤 Tech sector rotation

🔥 Tariffs / trade war

🔥 Iran conflict

🔥 Energy shock

🧠 Historical analog: Jan 2019 → +2.4% (30-day return)

🧭 Positioning

🔴 Risk appetite is declining

. Reduce beta exposure

. Monitor credit spreads

. Wait for clearer liquidity improvement